Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
The fourth quarter was characterized by several distinct phases in the Japanese equity market. Initially, the market rose sharply, driven by expectations surrounding the inauguration of the new government. This was followed by a period of weaker performance for growth stocks as interest rates increased. Toward the end of the quarter, the market stabilized through a rotation toward value stocks and a broader-based rally, led by the TOPIX index.
During the period, the Nikkei Index reached a historical peak above 52,000 yen. At the same time, during the second half of the quarter, a correction in highly valued stocks took place alongside increased sector and style rotation.
In October, Japan appointed its first female prime minister, which came as a positive surprise for both domestic and international investors. Foreign investors increased their purchases of Japanese equities, encouraged by expectations of a more active fiscal policy and greater stability in US–Japan relations following the bilateral summit. In early November, however, semiconductor‑ and AI‑related stocks, which had led the October rally, entered a correction phase. Concerns regarding the new government’s expansionary fiscal policy contributed to a sharp rise in long‑term interest rates.
In December, market focus shifted from highly valued growth companies toward value and financial stocks. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, pushing long‑term Japanese yields above 2% for the first time in approximately 18 years. This provided clear support to bank and insurance stocks.
The style pattern became particularly evident in December, with value indices significantly outperforming growth indices. At the same time, structural changes in the Japanese equity market continued, with several management buyouts (MBOs), tender offers (TOBs), and delistings during the quarter, alongside increased engagement from activist investors.
Against this market backdrop, the fund performed very strongly during the first half of the quarter. Performance was primarily driven by overweights in large, high‑yielding companies such as SoftBank Group, as well as in AI‑related stocks. As market leadership later shifted from growth to value stocks, the fund’s relative performance weakened during the second half of the quarter, mainly as a result of the ongoing style rotation.
During the period, the fund also participated in two initial public offerings, Tekscend and NS Group. As part of the ongoing structural changes in the equity market, the simplification of cross‑shareholdings between parent and subsidiary companies also served as an important driver. The fund’s holding in SCSK became subject to a takeover offer from its parent company, implying a premium of approximately 30%.
Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor how changes in the macroeconomic landscape affect the market and different investment styles. At the same time, careful stock selection will remain the most important source of the fund’s long‑term value creation.