Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
The fourth quarter was characterized by strong global risk appetite, despite continued significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate effects of the dramatic shift in US economic policy and changing geopolitical conditions on the global economy and risk oriented asset classes. A key question is whether US tariffs will trigger a substantial adjustment in the country’s current account balance, leading to corresponding changes in global financial flows, or whether adjustments in financial flows will instead drive changes in the US current account.
There are no conclusive signs that the US dollar has lost its position as the global reserve currency, but it is notable that, among other assets, gold prices have continued to rise. The period was also marked by a clear shift in expectations regarding future policy rates. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut policy rates on two occasions to a range of 3,50–3,75%, while market expectations for rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the coming year were largely priced out. In Sweden, the market instead began to price in a rate hike by the Riksbank during 2026. There are arguments suggesting that economic activity in Sweden may pick up, but inflation is nevertheless expected to remain moderate over the coming year, partly as a result of the strengthening of the Swedish krona.
Overall, and against the backdrop of our assessment of a negative asymmetric global risk profile, the fund has continued to maintain an overweight in Swedish interest rate risk with the highest credit quality (AAA), which weighed somewhat on relative performance. However, the fund’s positioning for steeper yield curves in Sweden performed well, although parts of this exposure were reduced during the period. Investments in covered mortgage bonds, as well as bonds issued by Swedish municipalities and supranational institutions, also contributed positively to the fund’s relative performance.