Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
During the fourth and final quarter of the year, credit markets were characterized by continued strong risk sentiment, primarily driven by declining inflation expectations and increased clarity regarding central banks’ interest rate paths. The Riksbank, which cut rates in September, held policy rates unchanged during the quarter, as did the European Central Bank, in line with expectations, while the US Federal Reserve continued cutting rates in October and December.
Overall, this supported increased risk appetite across both investment grade and high yield credits, but also resulted in somewhat higher rate volatility as part of the expected future US rate cuts were priced out. In Sweden, expansionary fiscal policy, combined with the Riksbank’s rate path, is assessed to strengthen growth during the first half of 2026, while inflation is expected to bottom out, driven by base effects and a continued strengthening of the Swedish krona.
Interest rates showed somewhat higher volatility but rose overall during the quarter, with the repricing of the Federal Reserve toward the end of November contributing to higher yields also in Europe and Sweden. Yield curves continued to steepen, primarily due to forecasts of increased government bond supply in the coming years.
Credit spreads were generally stable and continued to tighten, with rising concerns regarding certain exposures in the private credit segment representing the main negative factor. Nordic credit spreads developed even more stably and tightened further, as the presence of private credit is very limited. Swedish real estate companies, which earlier in the year had been affected by rising vacancy rates, strengthened during the final quarter as vacancy levels now appear to have peaked, with forecasts pointing to declining vacancies.
The fund’s overweight to the Nordic banking and financial sector contributed significantly to performance, while the fund’s neutral duration weighed on returns as yields rose. Despite continued compressed spread levels, credits are still considered attractive, particularly within the investment grade segment. Focus remains on companies with strong balance sheets and low ESG risks, primarily in maturities of 4–5 years. Duration is maintained at a neutral level, with some tilt toward continued steepening of yield curves.
During the quarter, the fund invested in a number of new issues at attractive levels, including Munters, Arla, Tele2, Rikshem, Traton, Volvo, Hufvudstaden, Boliden, Swedavia, Industrivärden, SSAB, Aktia Bank, and Heba.