Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
During the fourth quarter, global government bond yields rose, particularly at longer maturities, driven by higher term premiums, supply concerns, and an upward revision of the neutral rate. In the US, however, shorter dated yields declined as the Federal Reserve cut policy rates a further two times.
At the turn of the quarter, the fund was positioned for lower US five year yields, in line with our assessment of a slowing US economy. The position was managed tactically during the quarter and contributed positively to performance. Rising yields were also used to establish long positions in European swap rates, with maturities aligned to benefit from unchanged or lower policy rates from the European Central Bank over the coming year. These positions, however, had a slightly negative impact on performance during the quarter.
Both the European Central Bank and the Riksbank left policy rates unchanged and signaled that the rate cutting cycle is likely approaching its end. The global steepening of yield curves contributed positively to fund performance through steepener positions in the US, Europe, and Sweden. Exposures in Europe and Sweden were gradually reduced during the quarter, while the US position remains in place.
Investments in covered mortgage bonds and corporate bonds contributed positively to returns, supported by a continued stable credit market.
In addition, holdings in emerging market bonds and positions for a stronger Swedish krona contributed positively to fund performance.