Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
Nordic equity markets performed well during the fourth quarter, with the small‑cap index rising by 5.4% (CSX Nordic). At the country level, Finland performed most strongly, advancing by 13.4%, followed by Sweden, which rose by 8.6%. Denmark also posted positive performance of 5.9%, while Norway increased by 2.6%. From a sector perspective, financials and healthcare were the strongest contributors, while technology and energy underperformed.
The quarter began in a clear risk‑on environment. During October, the market was characterized by strong momentum in AI‑related investments, electrification, and associated themes. Capital flows were concentrated and expectations high, particularly toward companies expected to benefit from the continued build‑out of AI.
In November, sentiment shifted. An increasing number of investors began to question the sustainability of AI‑driven demand, while stretched valuations created headwinds. The technology sector became the weakest sector of the quarter, and the market rotated toward more defensive areas, where healthcare performed strongly. At the same time, the third‑quarter reporting season provided solid support. In Europe, corporate results exceeded expectations, leading to broad upward revisions of earnings forecasts. In the US, the picture was more mixed: lower‑income households remain under pressure, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, and inflation remains persistent.
At the same time, it is clear that the technology sector has been the primary driver of global earnings growth in recent years. The development of AI investments will therefore play a decisive role for market returns also in 2026.
Meanwhile, the backdrop remains favorable for Nordic companies. Clearer political frameworks, relatively stable macro data, and strengthening growth support investments and consumption. Companies generally exhibit strong balance sheets, global exposure, and continue to trade at lower valuations than comparable US peers. This creates attractive opportunities for investors focused on quality, cash flows, and sustainable growth.
During the period, we increased our holding in Volvo Cars and reduced exposure to Stora Enso. Gränges and NKT contributed positively to performance, while Truecaller and Pandora had a negative impact.