Portfolio manager comments — Q2 2024
Fund performance was negative in Q2. During the period the Japanese market underwent an adjustment phase that began with a temporary downturn of 10% from the highest levels during Q1.
As the anticipated rate cuts from the US central bank became less likely, the exchange rate of the Yen fell against the USD. To counter this, the Ministry of Finance undertook one of the largest currency interventions ever at the beginning of May, although the impact has been limited thus far. Export-related equities had a rough time on the stock market due to concerns about currency interventions, while bank equities on the other hand rose due to expectations of a rate hike from the Japanese central bank.
The full-year 2023 results for the largest companies on the Tokyo stock market were published during Q2 and showed record earnings for the largest companies as a whole. The results also exceeded the most recent consensus forecasts. On the other hand, company forecasts for 2024 are largely unchanged relative to 2023, with conservative assumptions about the exchange rate where the yen is expected to strengthen from current levels.
The amount of stock buy-backs announced during Q2 was 1.7 times higher than during the same period in 2023, which with all else being equal should be supportive for equity prices. In addition, several companies raised their dividend targets and implemented new dividend policies based on various key figures, such as a share of the company’s equity (independent of profit levels) or different types of progressive dividend programs.
Power companies and equities related to energy expansion posted positive performance, driven by expectations of higher demand for energy as a result of the increase in data centers. At the company level, Hitachi Ltd contributed significantly. At the sector level, insurance companies posted the strongest performance, while the bank sector exceeded the market when the 10-year bond rate reached the 1% level for the first time in 11 years. The fund’s overweight in equities, which included Tokio Marine Holdings and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, contributed positively to the fund’s performance.