Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
During the third quarter, political uncertainty eased slightly, although it remained elevated. The United States entered into tariff agreements, which may have contributed to more predictable conditions. U.S. tariff levels are at heights not seen since the 1930s. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding how the new regime will affect global economic and political cooperation and integration. From an economic perspective, significant uncertainty persists around the future development of inflation. Furthermore, the potential impacts of U.S. deportations on the American labor market remain unclear.
Market interest rates rose somewhat in Europe and Sweden during the quarter, while U.S. rates declined due to weaker labor market data. This benefitted the fund, as it had previously positioned for lower U.S. five-year rates, consistent with our forecast of a clearly slowing U.S. economy.
Despite weak economic data and substantial global uncertainty, risk sentiment remained strong, with rising equity prices and falling credit risk premiums as a result. However, uncertainty about the sustainability of this positive sentiment remains high. The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate in September and signaled the possibility of further reductions, while the Riksbank also reduced rates but indicated this was likely the last cut in this cycle. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged due to stable inflation in the euro area. Concerns over an increased supply of long-term bonds led to steeper yield curves globally.
In September, the Riksbank again lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. This action came despite higher-than-expected inflation during the summer months and was justified by lower forward-looking inflation pressures, driven notably by continued weak activity data in the Swedish economy and a stronger krona. According to our assessment, the market is currently pricing in a somewhat too low probability of further rate cuts from the Riksbank and the ECB. We also believe that the strong risk appetite in the market is at odds with developments in macroeconomic data.
Accordingly, the fund has maintained an overweight position in interest rate risk. The fund’s positioning for steeper yield curves in Sweden, the U.S., and Europe performed well. We have partially closed some of these exposures while also lengthening durations as the central bank cycle approaches its end. Investments in covered mortgage bonds, bonds issued by Swedish municipalities, and supranational institutions contributed positively.