Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
During the third quarter, political uncertainty eased somewhat, although it remained elevated. The United States entered into tariff agreements, which may have contributed to more predictable conditions. U.S. tariff levels are at heights not seen since the 1930s. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding how the new arrangements will impact global economic and political cooperation and integration. From an economic perspective, significant uncertainty surrounds the future trajectory of inflation. Additionally, the potential effects of U.S. deportations on the American labor market remain unclear.
Market interest rates rose modestly in Europe and Sweden during the quarter, while U.S. rates declined in response to weaker labor market data. Despite weak economic data and significant global uncertainty, risk sentiment remained robust, with rising equity markets and declining credit risk premiums as a result. However, uncertainty persists regarding the durability of this positive sentiment. The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate in September and signaled the possibility of further reductions, while the Riksbank also lowered rates but indicated this was likely the final cut in the current cycle. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged due to stable inflation in the euro area. Concerns over a growing supply of long-term bonds led to steeper yield curves.
In September, the Riksbank again lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. This decision came despite higher-than-expected inflation during the summer months and was justified by lower forward-looking inflationary pressures, largely driven by continued weak Swedish economic activity and a stronger krona. According to our assessment, the market currently prices a somewhat low probability of further rate cuts from the Riksbank and the ECB. We also believe that the strong risk appetite observed in the market is inconsistent with the prevailing macroeconomic data. Accordingly, the fund has maintained an overweight position in interest rate risk within AAA-rated bonds. The fund’s positioning in steepening yield curves in Sweden performed well during the quarter. Investments in covered bonds, bonds issued by Swedish municipalities, and supranational institutions such as the European Investment Bank also contributed positively.