Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
In September, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75 percent. The decision was made despite inflation during the summer months exceeding expectations, justified by a lower prospective inflation pressure—principally driven by continued weak economic activity and a stronger krona. The U.S. Federal Reserve also reduced its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to the range of 4.00–4.25 percent. The U.S. labor market has begun to show clearer signs of weakening, supporting our strategic view of a more pronounced slowdown in the U.S. economy than what the market has currently priced in.
Despite weak macroeconomic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, global risk sentiment has remained strong, resulting in rising stock markets and decreasing credit risk premiums. The returns in short-term interest funds have gradually declined in line with rate reductions from the Riksbank and narrower credit spreads.
The funds have maintained a neutral stance regarding the direction of short-term interest rates and have slightly reduced their credit risk exposure. The price of short-term money in Swedish kronor has increased during the quarter, due to the Riksbank’s gradual reduction of excess liquidity in the financial system. A higher Stibor relative to the policy rate indicates that demand for short liquidity exceeds supply, which should marginally benefit short-rate funds’ returns going forward.
In our assessment, the market prices a somewhat too low probability of further rate cuts from both the Riksbank and the European Central Bank. We also believe that the strong risk appetite in the market is inconsistent with the development of macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, we continue to hold a overweight position in interest rate risk. The positioning for steeper yield curves in Sweden, the U.S., and Europe developed favorably during the quarter. We have partially closed some of these exposures but also extended durations as the central bank cycle nears its end. Investments in secured residential bonds, bonds issued by Swedish municipalities, and supranational institutions such as the European Investment Bank also contributed positively.