Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2024
Fund performance was positive during the quarter and the fund rose just over 1% in SEK. The positive returns were driven primarily by stronger currencies in the emerging markets against the SEK, while global rates rose in most areas. However, the coupon rates in the emerging markets led to relatively neutral returns in the fixed income segment. The USD strengthened considerably during the quarter, driven by expectations in the market of fewer rate cuts from the US central bank (FED) in 2025, as well as rising US rates. The US continued to see strong economic data and inflation was slightly higher than expected. This, together with Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, affected the performance of both interest rates and the USD. Several of the central banks became more cautious in their guidance for rate cuts going forward, but we are still in a cycle of interest rate cuts in most countries. Mexico, Turkey and China were among those countries that cut rates during the quarter. However, Brazil went against the trend and raised its key rate due to a deteriorating confidence in the government finances and rising inflation expectations. The Brazilian currency weakened significantly during the quarter, which had a negative impact on the absolute returns. Despite this, the relative returns were positive as the fund had an underweight in Brazilian exposure. The overweight in Turkish supranational bonds contributed positively to both active and relative returns, particularly after the Turkish central bank cut rates by 250 bps and the Turkish lire strengthened against the SEK. China continued with its stimulus to support the economy, which included interest rate cuts and the launch of a support program that contributed to the decline in interest rates. The fund’s underweight in China therefore had a negative impact on returns, although this was compensated by a stronger Indian rupee where the fund has exposure through supranational bonds. The position for a stronger USD delivered good returns. The fund is underweight in duration and has a slightly defensive positioning for 2025.