Portfolio manager comments — Q2 2025
Fund performance was positive during the second quarter, rising by nearly 12% in SEK.
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2 surprised the market both in scope and scale, leading to global market declines, countermeasures, and an escalation of trade tensions. After the initial shock, the administration’s stance gradually softened. Trump backed down and introduced a 90-day negotiation pause for certain tariffs, set to expire in July.
The geopolitical environment also remained turbulent, with escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Uncertainty remains high, and global growth expectations have been revised downward. Business and consumer confidence remain cautious. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates twice following weakening inflation, while the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged due to uncertainty around future price developments. Despite this, both the US and European economies have proven unexpectedly resilient.
The fund benefited most from the industrials, services, and information technology sectors. Three profit warnings were issued by portfolio companies—one positive (GRK) and two negative (QT and Detection Technology).
New investments were made in Fodelia, GRK, Kreate and Mandatum, while holdings in Bittium, Gofore, Orthex, Outokumpu, Tokmanni and WithSecure were sold. The strongest contributors to fund returns were Kojamo, Metso and Orion, while Detection Technology, QT and Lindex had the most negative impact.
The biggest external concerns have eased, although political uncertainty remains high. Finnish consumers have strengthened as interest rates have fallen, inflation is moderate, and real wages are rising. This is reflected in increased sales of second-hand homes and more building permits for new projects. If unemployment remains under control, the second half of the year could be a period of growth.