Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
During the third quarter, political uncertainty eased slightly, although it remained elevated. New tariff agreements came into effect, which have contributed to more predictable conditions. These effects have been reflected, among other things, in rising U.S. inflation. Market interest rates increased in Europe and Sweden, while U.S. rates declined following weaker labor market data. This benefitted the fund, as we had previously positioned for lower U.S. five-year rates—in line with our forecast of a slowing U.S. economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its policy rate in September and signaled the possibility of further reductions, while the Riksbank also lowered rates but indicated this was likely the last cut in the current cycle. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged due to stable inflation in the euro area.
Concerns over an increased supply of long-term bonds led to steeper yield curves globally, especially in Sweden following the government’s reform package and fiscal stimulus measures.
The fund’s positioning for steeper yield curves in the U.S., Europe, and Sweden performed well during the quarter. We have partially closed some of these exposures but simultaneously extended durations as the central bank cycle approaches its end. Investments in covered mortgage bonds and corporate bonds also contributed positively to the fund’s returns, supported by a continued stable credit market.