Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
The fund delivered a positive return during the fourth quarter. The period was characterized by significant movements in interest rate markets and periods of increased macroeconomic uncertainty, but overall risk appetite in credit markets remained solid.
In the US, market developments were dominated by political uncertainty related to budget negotiations, resulting in the federal government being shut down for an extended period. The absence of ongoing macroeconomic data increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook; nevertheless, the US Federal Reserve chose to cut policy rates on two occasions, in October and December, by a total of 50 basis points. The more dovish monetary policy stance contributed to falling US government bond yields and a slightly improved risk sentiment, which benefited the fund’s interest rate positioning.
In Europe, the quarter was marked by political turbulence, particularly in France, where uncertainty surrounding the budget process and S&P’s downgrade of the country’s credit rating created volatility. The European Central Bank kept policy rates unchanged but signaled a more hawkish tone going forward. Together with upward revisions to inflation and growth forecasts, this contributed to rising European government bond yields toward the end of the quarter. The Riksbank also chose to keep its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but Swedish interest rates were affected by the broader increase in European yields.
Credit markets showed good stability during the quarter. Credit spreads were largely unchanged in both the US and Europe, despite periods of concern related to AI related companies’ future funding needs, developments within US private credit, and political uncertainty in France. Against the backdrop of a marginally improved risk sentiment, the fund increased its exposure to US high yield during the quarter in order to reduce its previous underweight. The adjustment was carried out selectively, with a focus on issuers with stable cash flows and strong refinancing capacity.
During the quarter, the fund also participated in a newly structured green “energy efficiency bond” issued by Vasakronan, where the proceeds are earmarked for investments in properties that are not yet classified as green.