The quarter was characterized by a clear shift in market expectations regarding future policy rates, alongside strong global risk appetite. The US Federal Reserve cut policy rates on two occasions to a range of 3,50–3,75%. At the same time, the market revised downward expectations for rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), with almost the entire probability of a cut in 2026 being priced out. In Sweden, the market instead began pricing in a rate hike by the Riksbank during 2026.
The one year yield on Swedish government securities rose by approximately 15 basis points during the quarter, while the three month rate moved within a range of 1,85–1,95%. Developments in high quality corporate credits were generally stable. However, periodic increases in credit risk premiums created attractive investment opportunities. The year ended with improved risk sentiment, an active primary market, and credit spreads declining to historically low levels.
The short term fund’s average yield during the period ranged from just under 2,2% to approximately 2,3%. Exposure to credit risk was kept low compared with historical levels. Holdings in consumer credits were reduced, while exposure to banks and real estate was increased. Active interest rate risk was close to zero. At the same time, the fund maintained a cautious positioning for higher Swedish rates relative to international markets, as well as protection against upside risks to Swedish inflation. The share of government securities increased slightly.
Looking ahead to 2026, we assess that the probability of further rate cuts by both the ECB and the Fed is higher than current market pricing implies. In Sweden, economic activity has shown some signs of recovery, and an expansionary government budget for 2026 argues against further rate cuts by the Riksbank. At the same time, low inflation outcomes at the beginning of the year, a strong Swedish krona, and uncertainty surrounding household saving behavior point in the opposite direction.
Rising risk premiums at longer maturities internationally argue overall for continued steepening of yield curves. Downside risks related to the US labor market, high valuations across many equity markets, and very low credit spreads could, however, lead to periods of increased risk aversion. At the same time, the Riksbank’s reduced balance sheet and increased government borrowing are expected to contribute to keeping short term Swedish market rates elevated.
Against this backdrop, the fund aims for a neutral to slightly long interest rate exposure and reduced credit risk, without compromising returns. Developments in office vacancy rates continue to be monitored closely, as this remains a key risk factor for the sector.
The fund’s primary focus remains low risk and high liquidity.