Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2025
During the fourth and final quarter of the year, credit markets were characterized by continued strong risk sentiment, primarily driven by declining inflation expectations and increased clarity regarding central banks’ interest rate paths. The Riksbank, as well as Norges Bank, which both cut rates in September, kept policy rates unchanged during the quarter, together with the European Central Bank, in line with expectations, while the US Federal Reserve continued to cut rates in October and December.
Overall, this supported increased risk appetite across both investment grade and high yield credits, but also resulted in somewhat higher rate volatility as part of the expected future US rate cuts were priced out.
Interest rates showed somewhat higher volatility but rose overall during the quarter, with the repricing of the Federal Reserve toward the end of November lifting both European and Nordic yields. Yield curves continued to steepen, primarily due to forecasts of increased government bond supply in the coming years.
Credit spreads were generally stable and continued to tighten, with rising concerns regarding certain exposures in private credit representing the main negative factor. Nordic credit spreads developed even more stably and tightened further, as the presence of private credit remains very limited. Swedish real estate companies strengthened during the final quarter as vacancy rates now appear to have peaked, with forecasts pointing to declining vacancies.
The fund’s overweight to the Nordic banking and financial sector contributed significantly to performance, while the fund’s neutral duration weighed on returns as yields rose. Despite continued compressed spread levels, credits remain attractive, particularly within the investment grade segment. Focus is on companies with strong balance sheets and low ESG risks, mainly in maturities of 3–5 years. Duration is maintained at a neutral level, with some tilt toward continued steepening of yield curves.
During the quarter, the fund invested in several new issues at attractive levels, including Wilhem, Tomra, DNB, Tele2, Rikshem, Traton, Hufvudstaden, Volvo, Boliden, Industrivärden, Lerøy, Aktia Bank, and BMW.