Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
The equity market rebounded in September following a weak start to the month. Emerging markets posted the strongest performance, particularly the Chinese markets which rose sharply after China announced interest rate cuts and stimulus measures. Performance in the Swedish equity market was also positive, with real estate investments posting strength. In contrast, the other Nordic stock markets posted negative performance, largely due to the weak performance of Danish Novo Nordisk during the month.
Market rates fell in the fixed income markets, most notably bonds with shorter duration, after several central banks cut their key rates and indicated that several cuts could occur during the coming year. The US central bank lowered its rate by 0.5% to stimulate growth in the domestic economy. As expected, the Swedish Riksbank lowered the repo rate by 0.25% and the market is expecting at least two additional cuts during the year. Both the US and the Swedish central banks believe that the risk for inflation is under control, which opens the door for several rate cuts. The lower interest rates were favorable for fixed income investments, which rose during the month.
We are maintaining our positive outlook on risk assets and expect the inflation rate to continue to decline and that economic growth will gain momentum. In this climate we also expect to see higher corporate earnings. As a result, we believe there are good conditions for a further rise in the equity markets and therefore remain overweight in equities relative to fixed income investments. We see the strongest potential in high-quality companies, small caps, digitalization, healthcare and real estate. Within the fixed income holdings we prefer corporate bonds as we believe these offer attractive yields.