Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
The US stock market stood more or less still during the quarter, which can give the impression that the period was calm. Nothing could be further from the truth. Q3 was eventful and was marked by the drama around the presidential election as well as the start of the anticipated cuts to interest rates, with the target of achieving a soft landing for the economy. The presidential election and increased concerns about a recession has created uncertainty in the market, which resulted in the movement of capital from the year’s winner – major technology companies – to sectors that have lagged behind.
The market has also begun to question the returns on investments in generative AI. At the same time, the expansion of AI infrastructure is continuing at a rapid pace, which requires significant amounts of energy. Holdings with exposure to the construction of energy for data centers, such as Nextera and Quanta Services, therefore posted strength during the period.
Examples of notable equities that have rebounded after a weaker period include Cooper and Dynatrace, which both delivered reports that were sufficiently strong to improve the sentiment and contribute positively to fund returns. Alphabet, which has performed strongly for some time, has been put under pressure due to concerns about increased regulations and tough competition for Google’s search engine from AI-generated searches. We agree with the concerns to some extent and have lowered the exposure during the quarter. Another holding, Edwards Lifesciences, posted weak performance after lowering its growth forecast, which led us to sell a significant portion of the position.
There are clear reasons for the interest rate cut by the US central bank: signs of a weakened economy are becoming more evident. As a result of this, the fund sold a portion of the cyclical holdings, such as Willscott and Nextracker. We also sold the software company Pagerduty, which continues to be affected by decreased investments being made by their customers. We made a strategic reallocation within the digitalization of the construction sector theme. Within this theme, we replaced Autodesk with Bentley Systems, which in our assessment has a stronger growth potential over the long term.