Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
The upward trend in equity markets continued during September, with the Stockholm Stock Exchange* rising by 0.6%, while global equity markets**, measured in Swedish kronor, gained 3.2%. The main drivers behind market movements in September were better-than-expected macroeconomic data and dovish communication from central banks.
On the fixed income side, short-term market rates declined following the Riksbank’s 25 basis point rate cut to 1.75%. Meanwhile, the Swedish 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.70%, indicating a continued divergence between short- and long-term interest rates. In June, long- and short-term rates in Sweden were roughly at the same level, but long-term rates have since increased to a level 0.8% higher than short-term rates.
We maintain a relatively positive outlook on the market going forward and see potential for continued bullish sentiment. Our view is underpinned by the current economic cycle phase, where growth appears poised to rebound, especially in Sweden, while inflation trends downward toward central banks’ 2% targets. This justifies the maintenance of low policy rates.
Furthermore, U.S. companies continue to demonstrate robust earnings growth, with forecasts indicating that Swedish and European corporate profits are also expected to accelerate in 2026. This outlook is supported by fiscal stimulus measures, such as the expansive budget announced in Sweden. We also see potential for increased corporate activity, including accelerated mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, and share buybacks.
*SIX Sweden SRI Index GI
**Solactive ISS ESG Screened Paris Aligned Global Markets Index NTR, SEK