Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
he upward trend in equity markets persisted during September, with the Stockholm Stock Exchange* rising by 0.6%, while global equity markets**, measured in Swedish kronor, recorded a gain of 3.2%. The main drivers behind market movements in September were primarily better-than-expected macroeconomic data and dovish communication from central banks.
On the fixed income side, short-term market rates declined following the Riksbank’s 25 basis point rate cut to 1.75%. Meanwhile, the Swedish 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.70%, indicating a continued divergence between short- and long-term interest rates. In June, long- and short-term rates in Sweden were approximately at the same level, but long-term rates have since increased to a level 0.8% higher than short-term rates.
We maintain a relatively positive outlook on the market going forward and see potential for sustained bullish sentiment. Our view is supported by the current economic cycle phase, where growth appears set to rebound, particularly in Sweden, while inflation trends downward toward central banks’ 2% targets. This justifies holding policy rates at low levels.
Additionally, U.S. companies continue to exhibit strong earnings growth, with forecasts indicating that Swedish and European corporate profits will also gain momentum in 2026. This outlook is further supported by fiscal stimulus measures, such as the expansive budget announced in Sweden. We also see potential for increased corporate activity, including accelerated mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, and share buybacks, collectively contributing to a relatively positive macroeconomic backdrop that could support a broader market rally beyond gains driven by technology stocks.
*SIX Sweden SRI Index GI
**Solactive ISS ESG Screened Paris Aligned Global Markets Index NTR, SEK