Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive during Q3 and the fund rose close to 4% in SEK. Global rates fell sharply in the period, where concerns about a recession increased at the beginning of August as a result of weak economic data from the US labor market in particular. This led the market to begin to price in sharp cuts to key rates. Although the downturn in risk assets rebounded rapidly, the fixed income market continued to reflect a high risk for a recession. The central banks reacted by cutting key rates across a broad front. The European Central Bank followed up its rate cut in June with a further cut in September, while the US central bank (Fed) began its cycle of rate cuts by lowering rates by 50 bps in September.
Our baseline scenario during the year has been that there was a high risk for a recession and that we will be facing a weaker labor market. The fund has therefore been positioned for lower interest rates and steeper yield curves on bonds with durations between two and ten years, which was favorable for fund returns during the quarter.
Based on our view of the high risk for a recession and a vulnerable market sentiment, we were underweight in Italian government bonds relative to German. Italy is more affected by its high government debt and long-term structural challenges. However, the negative performance in this position as a result of the focus on Germany’s issues with low growth during the quarter had a negative impact on the fund. Lastly, we had an underweight in French government bonds relative to Spanish due to the political uncertainty in France after Macron made the decision to dissolve the National Assembly and called for a new election, at the same time the country is battling with a budget deficit of 6% of GDP. This positioning proved to be correct as the interest rate on a French 10-year government bond during the quarter was higher than an equivalent Spanish bond for the first time since 2007.