Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2025
During the third quarter, political uncertainty eased somewhat, although it remained elevated. New tariff agreements have come into effect, creating more predictable conditions. These effects are reflected, among other things, in rising inflation in the United States. Market interest rates increased in Europe and Sweden, while U.S. rates declined following weaker labor market data. This benefitted the fund, as we had previously positioned for lower U.S. five-year rates, in line with our forecast of a slowing U.S. economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its policy rate in September and signaled the possibility of further reductions, while the Riksbank also cut rates but indicated that this was likely the final cut in the current cycle. The European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged due to stable inflation in the euro area.
Concerns over an increased supply of long-term bonds led to steeper yield curves globally, especially in Sweden following the government's reform package and fiscal stimulus measures.
The fund’s positioning for steeper yield curves in the U.S., Europe, and Sweden performed well. We have partially closed some of these exposures but also extended durations as the central bank cycle nears its end. Investments in covered mortgage bonds and corporate bonds also contributed positively to the fund's returns, supported by a continued stable credit market. Holdings in emerging market bonds and positions benefiting from a stronger Swedish krona also added to performance.