Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2024
Global rates rose in Q4 despite additional rate cuts from the US central bank (Federal Reserve), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Riksbank. After concerns about a recession dominated Q3, the risk appetite returned in Q4. Strong economic data, most notably in the US, caused the market to reevaluation previous expectations for additional rate cuts. The results of the US presidential election were an additional driving force behind the upturn in interest rates. The market interpreted Donald Trump’s victory as a signal providing support to risk assets but also a risk for higher inflation in the US. Our baseline scenario during the year has been that we are entering a weaker phase of economic growth, that valuations on risk assets are strained, and that we are facing a weaker labor market ahead. Consequently, the fund was positioned for lower interest rates and steeper yield curves between two and ten years. However, this strategy had a negative impact on returns in the quarter. Our assessment is that Sweden is slightly ahead in the cycle and has bottomed out. The fund was therefore previously strategically positioned to benefit from a higher 5-year rate in Sweden relative to Germany. This position contributed positively to returns during the quarter and was closed in December when the target level was reached. The fund’s positions in corporate bonds also contributed positively to returns due to a stable credit market. In September we increased the proportion of emerging market bonds to almost 11% and these performed strongly during Q4. The positive returns were driven by stronger currencies in the emerging markets against the SEK, while interest rate rose. However, high coupon rates mean that the performance was relatively neutral in the fixed income segment.