Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
US market rates fell during Q4 2024, while European and Swedish rates rose, despite rate cuts by both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Riksbank.
The market’s risk sentiment shifted at the outset of 2025 after a period of good risk appetite at the end of 2024. Economic and political uncertainty increased, particularly with the weaker economic signals from the US. At the same time, inflation began to rise from already high levels, which raised concerns about stagflation. This led to a decline in interest rates in the US, while more positive outlooks in Europe that previously had very low expectations, resulted in relatively stable short-term rates.
An increase in fiscal stimulus within Europe and Sweden, most notably in defense investments, meant stronger growth and incesased borrowing needs, which led to a rise in long-term interest rates in Europe.
During 2025, the fund has been positioned for lower US medium-term interest rates and a steeper yield curve between two and ten years in the US, Europe and Sweden, which benefited returns during Q1.
In January we opened a tactical position for a higher two-year yield in Sweden relative to Europe based on our assessment that the Riksbank had reached the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts, while the ECB is expected to continue. The position performed well and was closed in March when the target level was reached.
The fund’s positions in corporate bonds also contributed positively to returns due to a stable credit market.