Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
The fund rose 1.5% in SEK during Q3, which was characterized by a sharp decline in interest rates as several rate cuts were priced in after inflation data continued to decline and there were clear signs of a slowdown in the US economy with a weakening in the labor market. The Riksbank and the European Central Bank continued to cut interest rates in line with the plan previously communicated, while the US central bank unexpectedly cut key rates by 50 bps in September. The pricing in the fixed income market indicates that key rates are too restrictive and that additional cuts are necessary to ensure that growth does not decline significantly.
It is essential that unemployment does not rise in Sweden and Europe, as this runs the risk of leading to structural unemployment. The performance of credit spreads was sideways during the quarter, although some volatility was affected by fluctuations in the equity markets. This was driven by weaker company reports in Europe, while the US was affected by weaker than expected labor market data.
Issuing volumes were higher after the summer, as was demand, which created a stable environment for the movements in spreads. The fund has had an overweight in short-term rates and spread duration for some time, which contributed positively to returns when the interest rates declined and the spreads performed sideways. We are retaining an underweight in long-term rates as we expect these to decline less than the short-term rates. The fund’s holdings in subordinated bonds from Nordic banks contributed positively together with covered bonds with fixed rates. The exposure to real estate issuers also contributed positively due to a narrowing of credit spreads within this exposure. The fund participated in a a number of new issues at attractive levels, such as Bonnier Fastigheter, Klarna Bank, Traton, Intea, SEB, Nordea and Balder.