Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive and rose 2.6% in SEK during Q3, which was characterized by declining interest rates. Several central banks lowered their key rates and signaled that further cuts would be likely in the coming months. The concern that inflation would become entrenched at levels that were too high has been replaced by a growing concern for weakening growth outlooks and rising unemployment. The US central bank (FED) lowered its rate by 50 bps, while the European Central Bank cut its rate by 25 bps. The Riksbank, which began its cycle of rate cuts already in Q2, followed this up with two additional cuts at 25 bps.
We believe that a broad downturn in economic activity, declining profit margins and higher unemployment will be necessary to return inflation to target levels. The economy has slowed somewhat, although the monetary policy has a clear time lag. We expect the effects of previous rate cuts will continue to have a negative impact on the economy in the upcoming quarters. Despite the recent rate cuts, we believe that the risk for a recession remains high and that the labor market may weaken further.
The fund remains positioned for a steeper yield curve, which was favorable during the quarter. We believe that the position provides good protection against clear economic headwinds, a high risk for a recession and a vulnerable market sentiment.
The weaker outlooks for public finances and the Riksbank’s active sale of government bonds (QT) will continue to increase the supply of these bonds. As a result, we are maintaining an overweight in other AAA-rated bonds, such as covered mortgage bonds and bonds issued by Swedish municipalities. In an effort to further increase the fund’s resilience, we increased the fund’s duration in short-term bonds and continued to reduce the exposure in less liquid bonds that are more reliant on a positive risk appetite.