Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
Fund performance was positive in Q1 2025. Returns were strong from a global perspective, although they do not reflect the entire picture of the challenging market climate that dominated the period.
During the quarter the capital markets faced a series of interacting factors: US tariffs, fiscal policy changes in Europe, geopolitical uncertainty, and the launch of DeepSeek’s AI model. Together, these contributed to a clear revaluation of the short-term market outlooks.
The leading stock market indices in the US have fallen, the USD has declined and the risk appetite has weakened significantly in line with a deteriorating market sentiment.
For the first time in six years, the fund underperformed its benchmark index* during a quarter. This was primarily due to several Norwegian defensive heavyweights – such as Orkla, Telenor and Gjensidige – that performed significantly stronger than the market overall. Even though the companies show stable operational growth, the upturn in share prices was driven largely by the revaluation of multiples. These equities have been safe havens in a troubled world and are in line with the global trend during the quarter. DNB, which had a strong start at the outset of the year, also belongs to this group. Given that these equities represented financing positions in the fund, the fund’s relative return was negatively affected.
We see two paths going forward: 1) Trump’s tariff policy – and any countermeasures – have a dampening effect on the real economy, which places further pressure on the markets; or 2) The involved parties show restraint, which enables growth to persist and allows the beginning of a recovery to investment sentiment. The latter scenario currently appears to be the most likely. In this case, we expect the market to gradually rotate back to sectors that experienced difficulties during the period. Some examples of areas that can benefit include the seafood and IT sectors, with companies such as Salmar, Mowi, Crayon and Link. The outlooks for consumption in Norway and the Nordics also remain good, with companies such as Norwegian and Schibsted at the forefront.
We are retaining our overall positioning and are selective in our purchases at times of weakness, while we are also prepared to take action should the conditions change. Several of our holdings posted strength during the quarter and included Sparebanken Vest and Storebrand, which benefited from rising interest rates. Storebrand also reached NOK 100 per share, which marks a technical milestone. Protector also had good share price performance during the quarter. At the end of the period we also saw an increased interest in raw materials. Norsk Hydro and Yara rebounded from previous downturns and auto transport companies such as Höegh Autoliners posted strength. If the current macro forecast holds or improves further, we believe that there is further potential for the industrial and materials sectors going forward.
In general, we are retaining our positioning for Q2 but make note that market performance over the past six months has been strong with historical record highs in many global markets, including Norway. We look forward to the upcoming quarterly reports, which will provide important signals about the direction of our holdings.
* SIX SRI Norway 50 Index