Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
The Swedish credit market continued to show stability and delivered good returns during Q1 2025. The flows into the credit market continued to contribute to companies’ ability to refinance, which had a positive impact on the fund’s returns.
During the quarter the US central bank (FED), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Riksbank held monetary policy meetings and announced their key rates. The FED chose to leave key rates unchanged in the interval 4.25% – 4.50%, with continued focus on inflation growth before any easing would be considered. The forecast for GDP growth in the US was revised downward, and several analysts are now expecting a growth of between 1.7% and 1.9% for 2025, compared to previous estimates of over 2%. At the same time, inflation forecasts were adjusted upward, with an expected average inflation of 2.5% – 2.8% during the year. The FED signaled that cuts to interest rates could occur later in the year but emphasized that clearer evidence would be necessary to show that inflation is under control before any decision could be made. The ECB cut their deposit rate twice during the quarter. The first cut occurred in January when the rate was lowered by 25 bps to 2.75%. The second cut was made in March and the deposit rate was lowered to 2.50%.
The ECB justified the cuts with the continued decline in inflation and the need to stimulate the economy. At the same time, the growth forecast for the eurozone was adjusted downward to 0.9% for 2025. The Riksbank cut its key rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, which is a total rate cut of 175 bps since May 2024.
The Riksbank emphasized that future cuts will depend on the economic development and inflation outcomes, but the capacity for further easing is limited.
The fund continues to be overweight in banks and companies with low debt, while we are more cautious with sectors linked to the auto industry as we see a risk for the spreads to continue to widen. Q1 was a strong period for issues in the credit market, both in SEK and in EUR. The fund is retaining a strong liquidity position and a portfolio with high-quality credit.
The fund changed its portfolio manager to Klas Wennerstein on 1 March.