Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive during Q3 and the fund rose 2.7% in SEK. The positive returns were driven by declining rates in the emerging markets. The SEK strengthened slightly, which led to a slightly negative contribution from emerging market currencies. Additional rate cuts from central banks worldwide, including a cut of 50 bps from the US central bank, played a key role, together with downside risks in inflation data. The US 10-year rate fell from approximately 4.40% to below 4% in the period, while the USD weakened, which normally benefits the emerging market and was also the case in the period.
China presented a massive stimulus package at the end of the quarter which included support for the real estate market and the stock market, interest rate cuts, and fiscal measures that target low and middle-income families. This benefited countries such as South Africa, which has significant exposure to exports to China, particularly metals, as well as nearby countries such as Malaysia. The fund has an underweight in Malaysia, which had a negative impact on relative returns. The overweight in South Africa contributed positively and was the strongest contributor in Q3.
However, the overweight in supranational bonds denominated in Turkish lira had a negative impact, driven by a weaker currency following slightly higher than expected inflation data. The central bank continues to hold the interest rate at a contractionary level to counteract the high inflation and we are retaining the overweight. The fund has a slightly shorter duration, driven entirely by an underweight in China.