Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive in Q3 and the fund rose 3% in SEK. Global rates fell sharply during the period. After a calm start to the quarter, concerns about a recession increased at the beginning of August when weak data, most notably from the US labor market, led the market to price in sharp cuts to key rates. The central banks lowered key rates across a broad front. The Riksbank, which began its cycle of rate cuts in Q2, made two additional cuts to rates. The European Central Bank followed up its rate cut in June with a further cut in September, while the US central bank began its cycle of rate cuts with a cut of 50 bps in September.
Our baseline scenario during the year has been that there was a high risk for a recession and that we will be facing a weaker labor market ahead. The fund has therefore been positioned for lower interest rates, which was favorable for fund returns during the quarter. Our assessment is that Sweden is slightly ahead in the cycle and has bottomed out. The fund was previously positioned with a higher 5-year rate in Sweden relative to Germany, which also contributed positively to returns.
The credit markets have been very active with high issuing volumes and significant interest from investors. The fund continues to identify bonds with a clear focus on water, which has been a theme over several years. The fund added a green bond from Sydvatten, which we have owned for some time and also invested in a new green bond from IFC, which is a part of the World Bank. The financing from the IFC green bonds will be allocated to support clean marine environments and access to clean drinking water in emerging countries.