Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
The financial markets experienced turbulence during the first quarter of 2025. Donald Trump took office as president and immediately began with threats of high tariffs across the world. His rhetoric resulted in significant declines on the stock markets, particularly in the US. Tariffs, together with rising inflation, have without a doubt had an impact on the markets. Once again, there are concerns about a recession and lower growth.
At the same time in Europe the tone was different. During Q1 massive fiscal stimulus packages for defense have been proposed. A reform of the so-called “debt brake” has been proposed in Germany as well as an infrastructure fund of EUR 500 billion. The news had a significant impact on the fixed income market and the German 10-year yield noted its highest daily upturn since 1990, with a rise of almost 30 bps.
Actions by the central banks have been mixed. The US central bank (FED) left the key rates unchanged, while the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates in both January and March. The Riksbank cut its key rate once during the quarter.
The credit markets have been impacted by concerns about tariffs and spreads have diverged somewhat between different markets. Simply summarized, spreads have narrowed in Europe and in Sweden but have widened in the US. The interest rate movements in particular had an impact on returns in the fund. The fund had a slightly long duration during the quarter and was positioned for a steeper yield curve, which contributed positively to returns.
New sustainable bonds continue to be issued even though the wind is blowing in different directions at the moment with regard to sustainability worldwide. The fund has been active and added a green bond from United Utilities that focuses on water and a social bond from the European Investment Bank (EIB) that focuses on equality and female entrepreneurship.