Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive and the fund rose just over 1% in SEK during Q3. Market sentiment was marked by concerns about a weakening of the economy and the labor market, particularly in the US. This led to a sector rotation, where defensive equities were purchased, while cyclical and more risky assets were sold. The weak consumer climate in Finland also contributed to the weak performance for companies within consumer discretionary. At the same time, the declining inflation made it possible for central banks to adopt a more expansive monetary policy. In addition, China initiated the implementation of economic stimulus measures. In September, the US central bank began lowering interest rates with a sharp cut of 50 bps. This decision was made based on growing concerns about a weaker labor market and the risk for a recession. As expected, the European Central Bank also cut its key rate and the central banks are expected to continue with additional rate cuts ahead. Despite weak industrial data on both continents, the service sector showed marginally stronger results.
Industrials was the strongest performing sector, while the raw materials sector was the weakest. Five portfolio companies issued positive profit warnings, while six issued negative warnings. The negative profit warnings were primarily concentrated to the consumer discretionary sector. The fund added new investments in Revenio and Sanoma, but sold positions in Aspocomp, Enento, Kamux, Kempower, Mandatum, Metsä Board and Sitowise. Konecranes, Kesko and Orion were the strongest contributors to fund returns, while Stora Enso, Bittium and Optomed had the most negative impact.
The central banks are continuing to cut interest rates, which is supportive for both the economy and the equity markets. The situation for consumers in Finland is expected to improve as interest rates decline and real incomes increase. The construction sectors appear to have bottomed out, with housing sales and mortgage data already showing signs of a recovery. Company earnings outlooks are also improving.