Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
Fund performance was negative in Q1 2025. The news related to import tariffs by US president Donald Trump played a significant role in the market and contributed to substantial volatility. Trump also initiated peace negotiations related to the war in Ukraine. Increases to defense budgets in Europe, Germany’s comprehensive infrastructure investments and hope for peace in Ukraine contributed to a more positive sentiment in the European markets.
At the same time, the US central bank chose to hold off on additional cuts to the key rates, while the European Central Bank cut rates twice. US industrials posted some growth, primarily due to the service sector. The industrial purchasing managers’ index in Europe improved, although from low levels, and the service sector continued to expand. Despite this, the increased uncertainty most notably associated with the consequences of the tariff policies, had a negative impact on growth expectations and consumer confidence.
Financials was the fund’s strongest sector, while raw materials was the weakest. Two of the fund’s holdings, Orion and Puuilo, announced positive profit warnings in the quarter, while QT Group and Solwers issued negative profit warnings.
The fund added F-Secure, Cargotec, Marimekko, Outokumpu, Ponsse and WithSecure to the portfolio in the period, while the holdings in Kemira, Mandatum and Sanoma were sold. Mandatum, Valmet and Orion had the strongest positive impact on fund returns, while Stora Enso, Cargotec and Kojamo had the most negative impact.
The market is expecting two to three additional cuts to key rates by both the European Central Bank and the US central bank during the year, which could support economic activity and the equity market.
The outlooks in Finland suggest further improvements, provided that trade conflicts can be avoided. The situation for consumers in Finland is improving, although concerns related to employment can impact the rate of recovery in consumption.