Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
Performance in the economies worldwide has been mixed in recent years, with strong growth in the US, stagnation in the eurozone, and weaker growth in China. Q1 2025 was characterized by a dramatic upturn in political uncertainty. Trump’s threat of significant tariffs increased, which led to a downturn in risk sentiment. US interest rates declined, capital flowed out of the US and gold prices rose when the financial markets factored in lower growth and an increased concern about the status of the USD as a reserve currency.
Performance in Europe was completely different. After Germany held new elections in February, the newly elected chancellor Friedrich Merz launched a historically massive support package targeting defense and infrastructure investments. Given that this would result in higher growth and increased debt, long-term rates rose sharply in Europe at the same time as the EUR strengthened.
Interest rates also rose in Sweden in the wake of an unexpectedly high inflation at the outset of the year, at the same time as the SEK strengthened. The fund’s absolute returns were negatively affected by the upturn in rates during most of the quarter. However, the relative returns benefited from the fund’s exposure to a steeper Swedish yield curve.
An overweight in covered mortgage bonds, bonds issued by Swedish municipalities and protection against higher inflation in the form of an overweight in Swedish inflation-linked bonds also contributed positively to the relative returns.