Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
2025 began with major market fluctuations, in part due to Donald Trump’s actions on tariffs and policy statements, including about Ukraine. Given the uncertain climate, the equity markets in the EMEA region decreased by approximately 3.5% in SEK. This was actually higher than growth markets, as well as global and US equities during the quarter, which last occurred in 2016. However, the fund had a greater decline and fell just over 5% in SEK, primarily due to gold prices that have surged to historic levels.
Concerns about stagflation and a relatively high share of gold equities in the benchmark index* impacted performance in the period. To address this movement the fund invested in South African Gold Fields, which was positive and cushioned the impact of the upturn in the price of gold.
Fund performance was also affected by its exposure to Turkey, which was increased at year-end 2024 and at the outset of 2025. The investment was based on the expectation of economic improvements and positive reforms, together with a decline in inflation and interest rate cuts. However, at the end of the quarter president Erdogan unexpectedly arrested leading opposition politicians, including the mayor of Istanbul who, according to opinion polls, would have had a good chance of defeating Erdogan in a new presidential election. This shocked the market, since a new election will not be held before 2028, and led to sharp declines for both the Turkish lire and the stock market.
However, more defensive Eastern European markets posted strength, which included Poland. The fund has holdings in the Polish bank PKO, which can benefit from a future normalization and reconstruction of Ukraine.
Another positive contributor was the African mobile operator Airtel Africa, whose largest operations are located in Nigeria. The Nigerian government unexpectedly reversed the price ceiling on mobile tariffs, which makes it possible to adjust prices to compensate for high inflation and is a development that benefits the company.
We expect further high volatility in the region in the coming quarter. It is difficult to predict the short-term performance, although we expect strong growth within the themes in which we focus. We are therefore actively identifying opportunities to increase the exposure within these areas, as a more normalized stock market over time should increase the potential for solid returns.
*Solactive ISS ESG Screened EM EMEA excl. Saudi Arabia UCITS Index.