Portfolio manager comments — Q1 2025
The financial markets experienced turbulence during the first quarter of 2025. Donald Trump took office as president and immediately began with threats of high tariffs across the world. Trump’s rhetoric resulted in significant declines on the stock markets, particularly in the US. Tariffs, together with rising inflation, have without a doubt had an impact on the markets. Once again, there are concerns about a recession and lower growth.
At the same time in Europe the tone was different. During Q1 massive fiscal stimulus packages for defense have been proposed. A reform of the so-called “debt brake” has been proposed in Germany as well as an infrastructure fund of EUR 500 billion. The news had such a significant impact on the German 10-year yield that it noted its highest daily upturn since 1990, with a rise of almost 30 bps. In addition, the yield curves rose sharply.
Actions by the central banks have been mixed. The US central bank (FED) left the key rates unchanged, while the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates in January as well as in March. The credit markets have also been impacted by concerns about tariffs and spreads have narrowed slightly for IG credits, while they have widened slightly for High yield credits. The interest rate movements in particular had an impact on returns in the fund.
The fund had a slightly long position in duration during the quarter and was positioned for steeper yield curves. The latter contributed positively to returns, as did the holdings in Sato and Castellum.
The fund is retaining its slightly longer duration positioning as well as steeper yield curves into Q2.