Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
The fund rose just over 3% in SEK during Q3, despite a short-lived concern at the beginning of August that was primarily due to the measures taken by the Japanese central bank that created turbulence in the global stock markets. This concern proved to be temporary and the market rebounded quickly. Small caps performed relatively well in light of the previous preference for “mega caps”. Biomerieux, Marlowe, Embracer, Hellofresh, Castellum, Erste Bank and Beazley were the strongest contributors to returns in the quarter, while Indivior, Do & Co, Aixtron, Next 15, Strix and Demant had a negative impact. During the quarter the fund added equities such as Aixtron, Atoss Software, Cairn Homes, Carel, Corbion, CTS Eventim, Dynavox, Nexans, Pullup, Sandoz and SUSS Microtec. The purchases were financed by sales in Bawag, Calliditas, Exclusive Networks, Genmab, Keywords Studios, Nivika, NTG, Stora Enso and YouGov. After a number of profit warnings in September, particularly within the automotive industry, we expect a slight downside risk for the market’s estimates when we approach the reporting season. Earnings growth among large caps appears to be declining in comparison to small caps, which can partly explain why small caps have not recently been underperforming relative to large caps, unlike in previous years.
In contrast, European small caps have been showing more attractive relative valuations compared to large caps from a historical perspective. Declining interest rates also tend to benefit small caps and we would not be surprised to see additional bids on attractive, undervalued companies. Stimulus measures worldwide aim to spur the economies and although many funds have a defensive positioning, we believe that it is still too early to commit to an upturn. The fund’s tentative outlook on the economy is supported by the thematic drivers within our holdings, which contribute to advancing the likelihood of earnings growth in the portfolio, even though the economy also remains weak.