Portfolio manager comments — Q3 2024
Fund performance was positive during the quarter and the fund rose just over 3% in SEK. South Africa was the strongest market and rose approximately 12% in SEK. Subsequent to the election and the formation of the government, the country has begun to implement reforms that can resolve issues with the infrastructure and potentially strengthen growth. In addition, the interest rate cuts have contributed to the strong performance. Qatar and Egypt also posted strength during the period. In contrast, Turkey posted weak performance with a downturn of 17% after being one of the strongest markets during the previous 12 months. The weak performance is due to the high interest rates at 50% that aim to lower inflation. This is positive over the long term, however as the rest of the world cuts rates, we saw profit-taking after the previous upturn. The fund’s strongest contributors during the quarter included Emirates NBD (bank based in Dubai), the South African insurance company Discovery, and the South African education company Advtech, which all reported strong results and raised outlooks for the full year 2024. On the downside was the Turkish holding in Mavi, which fell sharply due to weaker outlooks after having more than doubled during the year. We decreased our holding earlier in the year but continue to see long-term potential at current levels. The South African pharmaceutical company Aspen also posted weaker than expected performance and had a negative impact on fund returns. During the quarter we decreased our holdings in the Hungarian bank OTP and the South African mobile operator MTN. At the same time, we increased our investments in UAE by adding holdings in ADCB and Emirates NBD, as well as in the South African insurance company Discovery.
Our outlook remains positive to South Africa for the remainder of the year given that the government’s reform efforts are developing in the right direction. Turkey is also heading in the right direction economically and we see the potential for positive performance going forward.