Portfolio manager comments — Q4 2024
Fund performance was negative in Q4. Stock market performance in the Nordics was very weak in the period and the entire market fell 10% (MSCI Nordic), which was weaker than the global index MSCI World. At the country level, Norway was the only market posting an upturn, while the Swedish and Finnish markets fell. The Danish market had the largest downturn, weighed down by the results from Novo Nordisk.
Q4 experienced volatility when investors focused on a slowdown in the economic climate and the presidential election in the US. Trumps return to the White House left its mark on the stock markets. Equity markets in the US strengthened, while European equities weakened due to the uncertainty about tariffs and an increased flow of capital to the US, which also contributed to a stronger USD. At the same time, a cautious risk appetite remained in the Nordic small cap markets, where the reporting season in Q3 emphasized a clear cyclical weakness.
Despite the global slowdown, there are positive signals for the Nordics. The region is expected to be at the forefront of GDP growth in 2025, which can strengthen the fundamental conditions for small caps and attract foreign investors. In addition, cuts to interest rates and taxes are expected to increase economic activity and the willingness to make investments.
During the quarter we increased the holding in SKF and decreased in Tryg. Skanska and Truecaller contributed positively to fund returns in the period, while Sagax and NKT had a negative impact on performance.